Which nations in our world today would be impacted first from climate change?

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It can be hard to tell what specific places would be affected by climate change down to the city. However, we can determine a few main regions and what about them would change. For example, the EPA, United States Environmental Protection Agency, says that the United States is warming faster than the global rate. From this, we can infer that the U.S. overall would be a place affected first.

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It is without a doubt that the Antarctic is a place being greatly, if not the most, affected from climate change. In fact, as I type this out it's already being changed and damaged and has been for awhile now. According to NASA, ice that is being lost from the ice sheet's margins is greater than ice gains in the inside. Similarily, Greenland has also lost much of its ice.

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UCAR has done research that shows changes on the Earth and in our world's weather won't be distributed equally. Polar and land area are going to be the greatest overall effect. This, for example, means that some places will get more or less precipitation than they do now. This would make plant life suffer due to habitats they're not used to. Many will face extinction.

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NASA has proven that oceans have taken much of Earth's extra energy, warming more than about 0.6 degrees Fahrenheit. 90% of the energy is stored here.

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Due to heat causing our snowy areas to melt faster, glaciers, ice sheets, and other snow and ice melting will end up being greater than the precipitation in winter. This would mean there would be a decrease in ice and snow.

This increase in water due to the melting of ice and snow threatens coastal communities, wetlands, and global trade.

In The Ministry for the Future, Robinson writes, "even an increase of just 1 more centimeter means rising water would equal a cube roughly the size of the District of Columbia at its base, thus twice as tall as Everest" (pg. 180).

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Due to a warmer climate, marine life will be forced to move to cooler temperature water, while those unable to swim, like kelp and coral, will be at high risk.

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What is the scale of damage that has occurred or will occur?

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Sea levels have risen about 8 inches in the last century. Much of which is contributed to the rapid melting of ice and snow around the world. Increased precipitation can also add to this.

According to UCAR, Center for Science Education, by 2100, sea level rise is expected to be 3.5 feet.

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Their figure indicates that the frequency of heat waves has increased from two per year during the 1960s, to about six per year during the 2010s and 2020s. The average time these heat waves last has also increased to be about 49 days longer.

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It is stated that Antarctica has lost about 148 billion tons of ice per year and Greenland has suffered an average loss of 279 billion tons of ice per yer between 1993 and 2019.

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Warmer temperatures overall provide the right conditions for more natural disasters to occur. These include hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones. They would also become much more dangerous and be more frequent than we're used to.

Warmer temperature also mean warmer surfaces which increase the frequency of heat waves, droughts, risk of wildfires, and could affect crop production and human health.

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Like in the book The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson, towards the end of the first chapter the people in India attempt sitting in the lake, thinking it'll be cooler, in order to get away from the heat. However, the water ends up being equal to, if not greater than, the temperature outside. In the end, people are literally cooked alive while inside the lake due to how hot the water is. "He had been poached, slow-boiled, he was a cooked thing" (pg.12).

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The thickness of the sea ice in the Arctic is half of what it was in 1950. The Arctic Ocean is also expected to be ice-free by the end of the century.

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Many coral animals will die due to bleaching, a process tied with warm waters.

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What factors would contribute to these specific places being harmed?

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In simplest terms, global warming is the Sun's energy being trapped in the atmosphere due to human activities that produce atmospheric gasses. This extra energy from the Sun warms the Earth. What tends to make it worse is human activities.

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According to the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Since systematic scientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of human activity on the warming of the climate system has evolved from theory to established fact." A.K.A. there is no denying climate change and there is no denying that we are the main cause of it. It's been proven.

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Paleoclimatology began in Greenland and Antarctica with Antarctic ice cores. The ice cores showed that while it took nearly 10,000 years for the Earth to emerge from the last ice age and warm to today’s climate, one-third to one-half of the warming occurred in the last 15 years.

Ice cores recorded past greenhouse gas levels showing that when the climate warmed, there was also an increase in greenhouse gasses. They also revealed that carbon dioxide levels are much higher today than they were in the past 750,000 years.

Another cause for rapid climate change could be attributed to ocean circulation. Warm water is carried into the North Atlantic, moderating the climate in Northern Europe. This is important to keeping the current temperatures of the water and the movement of it all is because of the saltiness of the water. Therefore, the more glaciers and sea ice melt, the more fresh water enters this stream and dilutes it. In turn, messing up the currents with the possibility of leaving Northern Europe cold and dry within a decade.

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The planet’s average surface temperature has increased 2 degrees fahrenheit due to this carbon dioxide and human activities.

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Over the last century, burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This increase happens because the coal or oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2. To a lesser extent, clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and other human activities has increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.

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What is the rate of the timeline to a future of disaster?

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If greenhouse gas levels continue to rise at present levels, then Earth’s global average temperature will rise another 7.2℉. According to the IPCC, reducing CO2 to stop after 2050 means a 1-1.5℃ increase, this is the best case scenario. Keeping it how it is and continuing to increase means a 4.5-5℃ increase, the worst case scenario.

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We have had many warm years and many cold ones. However, the Earth only keeps increasing in temperature. In fact, 2012-2022 was the warmest decade ever recorded, says the EPA. Since 1901, the average surface temperature in the U.S. has risen at a rate of 0.17℉ per decade. This number increased to 0.55℉ in the late 1970s.

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Paleoclimate evidence (tree rings, layers of sedimentary rocks, etc.), done by NASA show that current warming is occurring 10 times faster than the average rate of warming after an ice age.

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Japan has created “adaptation measures” for specific topics that would be greatly affected by climate change

For technology: change cultivation methods and cropping season, develop water saving cultivation in regions projected to have water shortages, environmental control of livestock barns, reinforce buildings and raise their foundations, improve heat stroke warning systems, and use measures to purify river and lake water (purification by vegetation, dredging of sediment, etc.)

For economic measures: reallocate water usage rights, indirectly control land subsidence to restrict use of deep groundwater, improve flood insurance programs, and provide financial assistance to install AC in homes without AC.

For awareness-raising: Create a water-conserving society through demand-side management, provide observational information, damage projections, and other information, educate people about disaster prevention, raise awareness about coral protection, distribute health guidance manuals, and provide guidance to households with seniors, etc. (distribute posters, use care provider systems).

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